With all the talk of brackets, seeds, favorites & dogs, the orphan ends up being the Totals

2008-03-24

With all the talk of brackets, seeds, favorites & dogs, the orphan ends up being the Totals. This neglected area is right at the top of most sharps’ list in terms of making money. Sportsbook has all of today’s totals lined up for you to wager on.

Line makers typically do solid work in setting up numbers on the sides, however the totals come afterwards, meaning holes could and do exist. Take advantage of these potential holes and the Beat the House promotion at the same time by getting in on the action at Sportsbook.com. Remember, every winning wager of $20 or more earns you points towards this week’s prize. Friday’s games tip off at 12:20 PM ET, so don’t miss out.

The most universally known totals wager is to play UNDER in the first round, as nerves, excitement and boredom often are part of the picture. First game jitters lead to players missing shots and making mistakes. They will also play to fast, being excited, taking off-balanced shots and clanging bricks off the back rim. The lack of intensity shows up with the higher seeds, often with lower scores. Since 1999, the UNDER is 191-132, 59.1 percent overall.

Big favorites of 20 or more points have played UNDER 57.1 percent of the time, with 28-21 record. In the opening round it makes sense to consider Duke, Kansas, UCLA, North Carolina and Memphis.
When the point spread range is 9.5 to 14.5 points for the favorite, the UNDER is has been the right play 62 of 99 times, for 62.6 winning percentage. In the first round is four defensive-minded squads that would appear to be prime plays, with Connecticut, Wisconsin, Washington State and Stanford.

At the moment Kent State and Davidson are lower seeds, yet are listed as favorites at Sportsbook.com. In the past when this has occurred, the UNDER is 31-18, 63.2 percent.

Following situational systems is an excellent way to find value, even in Totals. One such system is to play UNDER on all teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points, after having won five or six of their last seven games, in a NCAA tournament game. This system is a superb 37-10 78.7 percent the last three years. The qualify games for the first round involve BYU, Pittsburgh, UNLV, Xavier and Butler.

Another stellar system that has paid off handsomely is this: Play UNDER on all teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points after they have suffered one or more consecutive losses, in a NCAA tournament game. In this situation, we have games that include Purdue, USC, Notre Dame, Clemson, Gonzaga, Mississippi State and Louisville. The numbers show a 30-9 ATS record, 76.9 percent.

Thou many of these select systems favor wagering below the total, not all fit this criterion. As an example, it is best to Play OVER on teams that come into NCAA tournament game after a loss, when the total is in the 130’s. This profit producing system is 47-19 ATS, +26.1units since 2004. Here Arizona, Michigan State, Stanford, Kentucky, UConn, Indiana, Georgetown and Miami-Fl. fit the bill.

While on the topic of number ranges, all games between 120 –129.5 have played UNDER to the tune of 57.4 percent, with 54-40 record. Nearly 25 percent of the games played in the opening round are involved, with Xavier, UNLV, Pittsburgh, BYU, Butler, and Oklahoma all to be graded.

Teams falling below the total of 120 do not happen a great deal; nevertheless when it does, it usually comes up a winner 68.4 percent of the time. Washington State and Winthrop are playing in this type of contest.

Playing the totals is a notable way to add cash to wagering accounts during all the madness of March.

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