When you have college basketball games like today, this is precisely why we love the sports and try to determine ways to beat the oddsmaker at their own game.

2009-01-21

When you have college basketball games like today, this is precisely why we love the sports and try to determine ways to beat the oddsmaker at their own game. Much like golf, sports wagering is the never ending challenge and when you have four ranked teams going head to head in conference action, for the competitor in all of us, this is the type of challenge we love to work on and hopefully conquer. Here is a look at tonight’s very important matchups.

Speculation has been since the beginning of the season Connecticut (16-1, 7-6 ATS) has the talent and ability to compete with then ranked No.1 North Carolina. The Tar Heels have gone on and shone to be more vulnerable then anticipated with a pair of losses, while the Huskies have been steady as it goes all season with just one misstep.

The Huskies though have given few flawless performances. Since Christmas, UConn is 3-4 ATS, covering the spread by 20.5 points in the positive games and failed to so by 24.5 points in the others, signaling those setting the lines have a pretty good feel for UConn. So does coach Jim Calhoun, who recently has left his starters in games for 30+ minutes, trying to get them to play harder all the time they are on the floor, no matter the score. Calhoun has not been afraid to pull a star player either, like center Hasheem Thabeet against Seton Hall. Thabeet said afterward, "Coach said I was sleeping and needed to wake up." After dismantling the Pirates early, it might not be good for Connecticut who is 0-6 ATS after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.

Don’t expect defensive-minded Villanova (14-3, 6-7 ATS) to roll over for UConn. After playing three close Big East games and losing twice, the Wildcats unloaded on St, John’s 76-57 as 14.5-point favorites. Villanova started out the game with 19-3 burst, removing any mystery. Tonight, the Cats will need similar focus and intensity to pull the upset. Because shots will be harder to find inside, guards Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher have to score. Forward Dante Cunningham will have to have big game and Villanova will need to draw fouls.

With Sportsbook.com making the Wildcats a nine-point underdog with total of 138, how Villanova can stay within the spread or possibly pull the upset is continuing to make free throws at 75.4 percent clip. Coach Jay Wright’s team is 40-23 ATS after allowing 65 points or less two straight games and UConn guard A.J. price knows what to expect. “They play physical defense, so you have to understand you can’t be soft or lackadaisical in anything you do on offense.” –Price said in describing tonight’s contest.

UConn has won eight of its last nine against ranked opponents, and with a win against Villanova, can become the first team in the country to record five wins over Top 25 teams this season. The Wildcats are 2-10 ATS in January games over the last two seasons.

Immediately following on ESPN, the scene shifts to Chapel Hill and the Dean Dome for this ACC rivalry. You really can hardly call it a rivalry, since North Carolina has won 53 in a row at home over Clemson (16-1, 5-6-1 ATS). Seeing yesterday was Inauguration Day, when this streak started in 1926, Calvin Coolidge was the President, think about that for a minute. Given the choice, this would be about the last place the Tigers would want to visit coming off first loss of the season to Wake Forest. It’s a tough place for us to go bounce back,” Clemson coach Oliver Purnell said. “But it is a good opportunity for us as well to show we’re a good team. We’re resilient.”

Last year was about as close as Clemson could possibly come without winning, losing 103-93 in double overtime. Similar to when Navy stopped Notre Dame’s winning streak at 43 consecutive games in football, seniors K.C. Rivers and Raymond Sykes could be forever linked to the university if they could be the team that won at North Carolina. Clemson is 12-3 ATS following three or more consecutive home games.

There has been continued speculation why North Carolina (16-2, 8-9 ATS) has not been a powerful as presumed in many cases this season. The first answer is in the personnel. Everything was based on the Tar Heels having full compliment of players and Marcus Ginyard has not played due to injury and his defensive presence makes North Carolina sounder in that department. Though 7’0 freshman Tyler Zeller wasn’t going to be a starter, his injury took away what many believed what be an awesome front line with incredible depth.

Though North Carolina is 27-12 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons, the Tar Heels win last Saturday was an accurate summation of their season to date. The Miami Hurricanes took it to Roy Williams’s team from the start as 18-point road underdogs. They out-worked and out-hustled them for the first 15+ minutes of the half, building a 32-23 lead. After a timeout, the Heels showed up and decided to play. They closed the half on 13-0 run, taking better shots, playing stifling defense and rebounding with authority. After the half, they built on four-point lead and won 82-65, failing to cover by a single point.

North Carolina is a 14-point favorite and will assuredly have an air of confidence against Clemson, based on history alone. UNC is 14-5 ATS versus excellent teams shooting 45 percent or higher, with a defense that allows 42 percent of fewer shots made.

This twin-bill starts at 7 Eastern on ESPN.

StatFox Power Line – Connecticut by 9, North Carolina by 16

Click here to read latest College Basketball news